August 23, 2023

China Residential Property

#China's 3rd largest residential real estate developer #CountryGardenHoldings Co Ltd defaulted on its bonds this month. Note that our #Gloom score for the company was already triggering well in advance (image attached).

The past two weeks distress in the Chinese financial system are creating a #RiskOff attitude in global markets.

Per #Reuters: "China's property sector ... is the largest asset class in the world, with an estimated market value of around $62 trillion... The next thing to watch is how regional governments, many of which rely on real estate revenue, manage their debt."

On top of commercial (and multifamily) real estate distress in the US, we may see a #HardLanding from #MonetaryTightening after all. (Markets have been betting on a soft landing until this week).