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May 20, 2023
U.S. commercial real estate sentiment plummeting - time to buy?

With U.S. commercial real estate sentiment plummeting, is it time to buy?

In the chart below we plotted the #Russell1000 price versus two moving averages of media-derived U.S. #commercialrealestate sentiment from 2020 to now. When the 90-day is under the 200-day, the gap between the lines is shaded pink. Note that COVID led to a slight downturn due to WFH (work from home), then there was optimism about RTO (return to office), but today's interest rate / hybrid work habits-driven collapse depressed sentiment much more.

The Wall Street Journal last week reported distressed asset buyers buying properties like #AgaveHoldings. Per managing director Jose Perez “We have learned from the past, that when everyone is selling, buy; and when everyone is buying, sell.” 

#sentimentanalysis #sentiment #behavioralfinance

May 11, 2023
US Inflation to Drop to 4.3% Next Month: Insights from CPI and Predictive Model

The U.S. CPI came out yesterday showing inflation at 4.9%. Our predictive model, based on the aggregate inflation forecasts from news and social media, shows a further significant inflation drop over the next month to 4.3%. This model has consistently had a 30% tighter fit to the U.S. CPI than the consensus of experts since it began rolling-forward (expanding window architecture) in 2004.

Once interest rate expectations plateau, then the market may resume its upwards drift.

March 15, 2023
Schwab Bucks Trend in Latest Bankrun as Non-US Banks Take a Hit

Today's bankrun is targeting large non-US banks: Credit Suisse (a repeat target from back in October 2022) and BNP. Note that Schwab is in the green, probably due to being in the US (Fed backstop) and having a supportive CEO aggressively buying his own shares.

We plotted the overnight bullishness in the media about select major banks, below:

March 12, 2023
Media Mentions over SVB: Other Regional Banks and Tech Companies Take Center Stage

These are the companies most frequently mentioned in the media along with SVB in the last 5 days. Many are large financial institutions (LFIs, gray bars) that were mentioned due to stock prices falling across the board. However, the main concern surrounding SVB is other regional banks (blue bars), such as First Republic, Signature Bank, and Pac West Bancorp.

Several technology companies have also been frequently mentioned due to their possible exposure to SVB (red bars): Roku, Circle, Roblox, BlockFi, Coinbase, and Etsy


March 03, 2023
Sometimes News Sentiment Drives the Market, Sometimes It is Only Reacting

According to a new paper, news sentiment sometimes drives the stock market, and sometimes reacts to it. Specifically, news drives market prices during periods of upheaval (debt crises, Brexit and Covid-19 to name a few). Sentiment reports on market action - after the fact - during less volatile times.

Spillover between investor sentiment and volatility: The role of social media by Ni Yang (Auckland University of Technology), Adrian Fernandez-Perez (Auckland University of Technology) and Ivan Indriawan (University of Adelaide)

February 28, 2023
Risk Signals for Norfolk Southern's Train Derailment

Following on #Adani, another example of real-time #AI-detected ESG controversies monitoring capturing events as they evolve. Note how the controversies score decline leads the share price lower.

We send our sympathies to the residents of East Palestine, OH.